Here I am, for the invited throw down.
As a disclaimer and to put my cards on the table, I'm in the 19% who believe that abortion should be legal in all cases no matter what. I'm a libertarian. Bodily autonomy is where its at for me. You don't want to have a baby, you shouldn't have to. That aside....
The maths your arguing is maths generated within a system. A system that might be unfair, but not a system you can put aside when it doesn't create the results that you want. Indeed, it may still create the results you want and it may do it in a more democratic way than Roe v. Wade.
Roe overreached and took the decision out of the hands of the States and created a legal judgment out of a moral position. You've read my article where I argue it should be repealed (because it's faulty) but maybe now isn't the right time... but if not now, then when. Democrats haven't been in any hurry to return to the issue to the demos.
Elected officials are therefore likely to be made up of those people who feel the strongest. Voting hasn't taken into account the Roe v. Wade decision because there was an erroneous presumption on the part of voters that it would hold. But it isn't going to hold, it's built on a constitutional house of cards and I think it will fall.
So while we might have a tranche of super right wing pro-life politicians standing in the sidelines with their trigger laws, I think they're going to have a tougher time at the ballot boxes next time round. I think moderate Republicans will pull these laws back to where they align most with the electorate in each given area. That's not an immediate fix, but I think it'll be a more democratic fix. There are hard line pro-lifers, but there should be enough moderates in the mix to move things back to the centre ground.
That's pushing abortion back to each individual state as a commitment to democratic principles... but I do think there's a federal case to be made. I think there's an argument under the 1st amendment as this is a religious issue. If the state can't force you to get an abortion on religious grounds, it shouldn't be able to restrict you from getting one either. I think this would compel each state to offer such a service, though how much they funded it, promoted it, supported it, endorsed it or advertised it would be largely dependent on each State's democratic mandate.
Yes, overturning Roe might lead to a legitimacy crisis.... or it may be the end of the legitimacy crisis into which Roe thrust the SCOTUS. I am scared for young women caught in the middle of this legal and political shamfuckery but I am also hopeful that when seen over a broader 50 year timespan, this might be a small step back before two steps forward.
Here resteth the Penguin
